Dr. Hanna Hopko
Chairwoman, Zero Corruption Conference
Former Foreign Affairs Committee Chair, Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine
Dr. Michael Carpenter
Managing Director, Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement
Dr. Alina Polyakova
President and CEO, Center for European Policy Analysis
Professor Alan Riley
Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Dr. Benjamin L. Schmitt
Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Harvard University
Former European Energy Security Advisor, U.S. Department of State
Moderator: Dr. Emily Channell-Justice
Director, Temerty Contemporary Ukraine Program, Ukrainian Research Institute, Harvard University
Event Overview:
For years, U.S. and European policymakers braced for what appeared to be an inevitable gas crisis in Europe at the outset of 2020. The crisis was to be precipitated by a Russian cutoff of the Ukrainian gas transmission system facilitated by Gazprom’s diversionary pipeline proposals: Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream. Instead, EU regulatory action and U.S. sanctions legislation mitigated the immediate threat of an encore performance of the 2009 Russian gas cutoff of Ukraine. In response, the Kremlin’s energy strategy for the first part of 2020 has appeared to invert its longstanding ‘oil for revenue, gas for influence’ external engagement model, with Transneft’s oil cutoff of Belarus as a part of a pressure campaign to form a union state with Russia.
Nevertheless, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s looming revival of Nord Stream 2 may signal a return to form. Moscow’s recent maritime activities in the Baltic Sea suggest a number of technical options that the Kremlin may consider to complete the project, unless Gazprom or its subsidiaries think twice about facing U.S. sanctions. Meanwhile, dual legal rulings in May 2020 by the EU General Court and Germany’s Bundesnetzagentur have for now denied Gazprom’s attempts to circumvent the EU Third Energy Package should the pipeline be completed. Given Russia’s propensity to use critical infrastructure projects and gas resources to project malign influence and support elite capture trends across the West, as well as the direct impact that these developments would have on Ukraine’s national security, reform efforts, and Euro-Atlantic aspirations – with real implications for broader Transatlantic security – innovative policy engagement from the West is as important as ever.
Please join the Temerty Contemporary Ukraine Program, Ukrainian Research Institute, Harvard University for a virtual panel discussion with some of the leading minds from Europe and the United States on these pressing energy and national security issues, which will prove to have significant impact on Transatlantic security for years to come.