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  • Worship Attendance Calculator

    This worksheet follows the principles laid out in the Church Planter's Handbook based on input vs. output goals. I show the equations we use below. This is meant only as a guide and is not guaranteed to be accurate. These numbers are based on averages and will change dramatically based on marketing, recruitment, leadership development, advertising, worship style, etc. This is brought to you by The Progressive Planter: A Handbook for Ecclesial Entrepreneurs. Click on the image to order your copy.
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  • Start here:

    Take a moment and answer these questions as honestly as you can. It will help us estimate your input and output goals.

  • 1 = 1:2 ratio - for every launch team member, you hope to have twice as many people at the Launch Service. 

    4 = 1:3.5 - for every launch team member, you hope to have three times as many people at the Launch Service. 

    If you don't expect them to invite anyone, leave blank.

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  • Now you can adjust the sliders to see how it impacts your Input and Output Goals.

  • The Details

    Here is an explanation of the terms above.

  • Input Goals

    Input goals are the things we can do; the stuff we can put effort into. They include everything in our circle of control and influence. We can't control how many people join our launch team, but we can control how many people we invite. 

    Input goals include New Conversations Per Week and New Contacts Per Week. 

    • New conversations per week are the number of estimated meetings or meaningful conversations you need to have each week to reach your launch team goals. 
    • Contacts per week are the number of people you might need to call, email, text each week in order to reach your New Conversations Per Week goal.

     

    Output Goals

    Output goals are the results, or what we hope to get out of it. These are estimated, and not guaranteed. We cannot control output goals. We hope that if we do the work, we might see these kinds of results. These estimates are rooted in averages and will change dramatically based on your marketing, recruitment, leadership development, advertising, worship style, etc.  

    Output goals include the Estimated Attendance, First Sunday, and Estimated Weekly Attendance, The First Six Months

    For more information check out this article: https://careynieuwhof.com/church-planting/

  • Launch cost and attendance averages for new church starts: 

    This can give you an idea of what it often costs to launch a church based on the size you're hoping for. This is from the Evangelical Council for Financial Accountability, based on averages, and might not adequately reflect the costs of mainline church plants, which might cost more and attract fewer people, as well as other mitigating demographics. 

    Learn more: https://www.ecfa.org/Surveys.aspx

    • The Calculations 

    • Like our teachers always said, "Show your work!"

      Much of these numbers are based on an article written by CAREY NIEUWHOF. You can read the full article here.

      Here is a brief explanation of the calculations: 

      New Conversations Per Week (C)

      We are using the ratio of 1 to 4 to calculate the number of contacts you need to make. Thus, we take your launch team goals (L), divide it by the number of weeks you have to meet new people (M), and multiply it by 4.

      C = L/M x 4

      For the number of contacts, we just multiplied this number again by 3. The hope is that for every 3 people you invite to coffee, you will get a meeting with 1 of them. 

       

      Worship Attendance, First Sunday, Based on Launch Team Goals (A): 

      Here we include the information provided in the likelihood that your Launch Team will invite people. So first we have to develop a Sliding Ratio (R). 

      By default, each launch team member brings 2 people unless invite effectiveness (I) increases it.

      R = (2 + (I - 1)/2)

      If someone scored a 1 on likely to invite, the adjustment variable would be 2.

      If someone scored a 4 on the likely to invite, the adjustment variable would be 4. 

      This is used as a Sliding Ratio (R). If your launch team is unlikely to invite people, then you can expect your launch team to worship attendance ratio to be 1 to 2, but if they are highly likely to invite people, it goes up to 1 to 5. 

      Thus the estimated First Week of Attendance ends up being: A = L x R

        

      Worship Attendance, Weekly Based on Retention (W)


      This phenomenon—where a church plant’s launch service is significantly larger than its subsequent weekly attendance—is well-documented. While exact numbers vary depending on factors like location, denomination, and launch strategy, some general statistics suggest:

      30-50% Drop: A common rule of thumb is that a church plant's attendance often drops to 50% of the launch day attendance within a few weeks.


      Factors Affecting Retention:
      Launch Model: Churches using a large public launch model (advertising heavily and hosting a big opening event) often see more dramatic drops than those that start with a core group model (building a committed team before launching services).

      Follow-up & Engagement: Churches that intentionally follow up with launch attendees and offer next steps (small groups, service opportunities, etc.) tend to retain more people.

      Here's an equation to estimate weekly attendance based on launch Sunday service attendance, using two 1-5 rating scales:

      Follow-up Effectiveness (F): How well-developed the church’s follow-up and engagement processes are. (1 = Poor, 5 = Excellent)
      Launch Model (LM): Whether the church is launching large (1) or growing slowly over time (5).

      We can define the Retention Percentage (P) as a function of these two factors:

      P=0.2+((F+LM)/10) x 4This ensures retention starts at 20% (0.2) for the lowest-rated churches and goes up to 60% (0.6) for churches with the strongest follow-up and slow-growth strategies.

      Then, the estimated weekly attendance (WA) is:

      WA=S×P

      Where:

      S = Launch Sunday attendance
      P = Retention percentage (20%-60%)

      Disclaimer: While the concepts are 100% my own and I tested the equations, making adjustments, ChatGPT was used in helping frame some of the equations.  

       

    • Would you like a copy of your results?

      If you'd like to have the results emailed to you, please complete your name and email and hit submit.

    • This Church Worship Calculator is designed to provide an estimate based on the inputs provided. The calculations are intended to help with goal-setting but do not guarantee specific results. Factors such as community engagement, marketing efforts, and local context can significantly impact actual attendance.

      Portions of this calculator were developed with the assistance of ChatGPT.  

      Joe Graves and its affiliates hold no liability for any outcomes related to the use of this tool.

      By using this calculator and hitting "Submit," you acknowledge that you are using it at your own risk and agree to receive occasional emails with insights, resources, or updates related to church planting and leadership. You can unsubscribe at any time.

      If you have any questions or need further assistance, feel free to reach out!

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