So let's figure out how plausible or believable it is that the probability a 10-month infant picks the helper toy is 0.50. In other words, I want to evaluate the following model:
- All 10-month infants have the same probability of picking the helper toy
- That probability is equal to 0.50
- What color or shape the object is or which video they watched first do not impact this probability (these effects have been 'averaged out' across the infants)
In other words, the graph of the proportion choosing the helper toy could still be bouncing around, giving us a proportion of 0.875, just by random chance variation alone, and if I was to keep testing infants forever, the graph would converge to 0.50?

To compare our data to this model, we are going to simulate sets of 16 infants where we know each infant is equally likely to pick the helper toy and the hinderer toy.